Episode 1

Survivor is here once again, which, for me, means weekly cases of insomnia after each episode and a permanently open tab of robhasawebsite.com. So rather than just watch the episode and listen to other people’s opinions, I figured I might as well attempt to do a weekly analysis of the show. I am not going to recap the entire show because I’d imagine anyone who is actually reading this has already watched the episodes, and probably read 10 other recaps as well. I will try to focus on the more strategic aspects of the game such as analyzing game moves, and predicting where the game will go. I’m not sure how many people care about the opinion of someone who has a Twitter based a former Survivor from a season nearly 10 years ago with a website and a podcast, but I don’t have much better to do with my time, so here it goes.

First off, I’m a huge fan of the medically evacuated returnees. I’m not sure if Penner really qualifies for the second chance theme, especially with Joe from Tocantins as an eligible returnee, but I am a fan of him, so I’m not going to cry about it. I’m assuming the picks were based not only on time of evacuation, but also how well they were doing at that time, and Joe wasn’t looking too hot in Tocantins. Regardless of why it happened, we have three people who were leaders in challenge dominant tribes.

Right off of the boat, Penner is mouthing off to Jeff, which is always great, and Jeff Kent is complaining about his MCL. I think that’s already a strike against Jeff, not because he’s injured, but because he has to bring it up. Later in this episode, he competes in the most physical leg of the immunity challenge, which tells me that it isn't that big of a deal yet. I may be reading too far into this, but I think Jeff has a lot of pride in being a professional athlete, and will have an excuse for any time he may possibly underperform in a challenge. Immediately following a challenge that the former Giant doesn’t do too hot at, I have a feeling that we will see him giving reasons for his failure. For his sake, he should make sure that it is in front of a camera rather than in front of his tribe. At his worse, Jeff will slow his tribe down a little bit, and bringing that up in front of his tribe will give them an excuse to get rid of him (see Zane Knight.)

We get to the beaches, and Russell needs to practice what he preaches (Rhymes are fun.) He’s in the easiest position, as far as veterans go, to not have to assume a leadership position. Skupin has a bunch of people who don’t seem to have any experience in the wilderness, Penner has two people who call themselves “outdoorsy,” and Russell has Malcolm. To an extent, Skupin and Penner would be stupid to NOT dictate what happens at their camps. Russell on the other hand is on the same tribe as the person who knows how to make fire without a flint. Sadly for him, he can’t resist himself, and he lets Malcolm go unnoticed while taking the leadership role.

I get that Penner is excited to be back, and I love that about him, but you can take time to appreciate it later. Day 1 is not the time to be frolicking in a nearby pond and taking it all in. He needs to be ensuring his spot in the majority by simply always being in the largest group of people at all times. That’s what Coach did best in South Pacific, he was at the fire at night with four other people. Penner isn’t starting behind the 8-ball, but he’s pretty close to it. I think his saving grace is going to be Dawson. She’s a superfan who was ecstatic to see the returning players, and she knows that Jeff is being dishonest about his career. In the war of Penner vs Jeff, I think that Jeff has Dana, Penner has Dawson, and Carter and Katie are going to be a package deal. Add into the equation that Penner has a clue to the idol, and Dawson knows about Jeff, and I would wager that Jonathan could pull a few more days on the island out of his iconic hat.

Skupin is playing close to the game that I would like to think I would play if I were on the island. He’s moving with the game, he’s not overbearing, everybody seems to like him and wants to keep him around. I’m a fan of the day 1 alliance, but not the 10 minute alliance. In One World, the alliance was so quickly conceived, the members were already wishing for a mulligan by the first vote. I think that RC jumped into this so fast, she may be regretting her decision if Skupin decides he’d rather have Lisa in the alliance than Abi Maria.

We go back to Matsing, and Russell is still being bossy. Malcolm starts planting anti-Russell seeds and makes it clear that he doesn’t want to have Russell around any longer than they need him, which is the best approach when it comes to returning players. I think that Angie may be a little infatuated with Malcolm because he’s apparently really good looking, and he’s the only option. I’m not actually sure about the first part, because I’ve only heard him talk about how good looking he is. Point being, I don’t think Malcolm is going to care about having a snuggle buddy, and definitely cares about how he is perceived in the game. With only 5 people in one shelter, you have the ability to sleep next to half of the tribe. I think that Angie getting too close to Malcolm could make him want to get rid of her so nobody thinks he is going to vote with his heart to keep her. Then again, I’m not sure if Malcolm even has emotions.

Over at Tandang, Abi and Pete are being flirtatious, which could make a great argument for Skupin to get rid of Abi rather than Lisa. I can easily see Skupin convincing RC to take in Lisa instead of Abi simply because of her relationship with Pete. From there, I don’t think Pete would be hard to trick into thinking he’s still in the majority, and that Abi only went home because she’s bad at challenges. That being said, I don’t fully understand what RC’s motivation is behind throwing Lisa further under the bus is. She is already outside of the majority alliance and alienates herself by being alone and not taking her clothes off to go swimming. I think this is overkill and it may not hurt her pre-jury, but later on it may be seen as catty. Is being alone and not taking your clothes off really a sign of being untrustworthy? Not a team player maybe, but not untrustworthy. I think there is a middle ground between Lisa’s plan and Skupin’s idea. If she tells RC about her career in confidentiality, she may end up telling everyone else, but she will come out of it thinking that she can trust Lisa more than she currently does, making an alliance switch all the more possible.

Back at Matsing’s beach, Denise is acting like how I imagine she must act with patients. I don’t know if it is the natural tendency of therapists to see the patient in everybody, but I think she needs to keep that ability more under wraps. If her fellow castaways see how good she is at reading people, they may want to get rid of her in a time in the game usually reserved for getting rid of physical threats. Pre-game interviews led me to believe that Zane was going to be a self-aware, down-to-earth player who could potentially be a power player in the game. I still think he could have done incredibly well if he hadn’t gone crazy after the challenge, but I’ll get to that later. In an ideal world, Angie will go deep enough in the game to be a returnee on a later season of Survivor that also includes me, and we can have a Romber alliance and I still win the million. If Angie somehow reads this and is ever near the east coast, we should get dinner or something. After Zane makes all of his alliances, an alliance that matters forms between Denise and Malcolm. I like this alliance for two reasons: 1. It is a 2 person alliance that was in control of a 6 person tribe, and 2. Denise and Malcolm together are like a pair of unemotional, analytical, challenge savvy robots who can easily go far in this game. I really hope that the name “Terminator Alliance” catches on.

Kalabaw is pretty boring other than the anti-Penner sentiment. Katie doesn’t like the shady stuff going on with Penner, so I really think that he could benefit from sharing the clue with some of his tribe. Penner + Dawson + clue + baseball knowledge = Katie’s distrust switching from Penner to Jeff and Jonathan living to see another day. I’m just assuming that Carter is going to switch to whichever side already has three people. Speaking of the idol, it is the little ornament on top of the rice container, right? That sucks. If the rice container I see every day suddenly doesn’t have a defining mark on top of it, I’m going to notice. Optimal idol use is sometimes only possible if nobody knows you have it, and how can they not know when it’s one of the few things they see every day, and it goes missing?

Speaking of idols Russell finds a clue for it, then his tribe loses the immunity challenge. Russell was smart to immediately address how bossy he was before the competition. Everybody was going to be talking about it anyway, because the tribe viewed it as the reason they lost. Zane on the other hand, was probably not going to be in the conversation at all. He wasn’t even in their slowest leg of the race! Oddly enough, Malcolm and Denise were the worst, and Denise volunteered for that leg. But they both shut up about it, and that’s why they weren’t even in question. My understanding of the move is that he wanted to know where he stood in the tribe, so he would volunteer to leave and see if he stayed. Even if he did end up staying, his stock in the tribe would have gone down because he almost quit, and he figures out where he USED to stand in the tribe. The best analogy I could come up with for this strategy is this. He wanted to know how much money he had in the bank, so he wrote an obscenely large check (let’s say $1,000,000,) and saw if it bounced. The two possible outcomes of this are either the check bounces (Zane goes home,) or the check goes through and he’s out all that cash (He stays in the game, but loses a lot of ground.) Even worse than this is the fact that the check clears at first. Angie and Malcolm both seem to want to keep him. He should have taken this as a sign that he was in a good position, and then covered his tracks. All he had to do was say that he thinks Russell may have the idol, he wanted Russell to lower his guard, and he wants to stay in the game. Then, nobody would think he wanted to go home, and they would have tried to get rid of Russell knowing that Zane would go if he played an idol. Instead, Zane dances around and doesn’t give straight answers, so now he’s gone. I think that Russell will no longer lead, but I’m afraid he might overcorrect and refuse to offer his advice at all (see Chicken, Survivor: China.) Hopefully he can learn to balance his own ideas with everyone else’s.

Enough of dwelling in the past, it’s time to move forward. I am now going to try to deduce what each remaining player should do, and then follow up with what I think will happen in Wednesday’s episode. I don’t know any spoilers, and most of this is probably wrong.

Russell: I may be wrong on this, but if Russell stops being so authoritarian, Malcolm will want to keep him around longer so that he has someone more imposing than himself to be taken out first. He should work to get Angie and Roxanne on his side to get rid of Denise if they happen to lose again. That way, Malcolm will be on his own, but he won’t feel the danger if they sell Denise’s vote to him well enough. Or, he could out Malcolm to be Denise’s new meat shield.
Malcolm: Malcolm should try to keep the anti-Russell sentiment going as long as possible in Angie and Roxanne. The only danger to him and Denise is the other three of the tribe getting together, but they probably need Russell for competitions if they lose another challenge soon, and if the remaining girl still hates Russell, he and Denise will remain the power duo.

Denise: I can see Malcolm getting a little overly aggressive and trying to get Russell out prematurely, and it’s Denise’s job to make sure that doesn’t happen. There will be plenty of time to get rid of him after the merge, and it’s another person more threatening than her, which is a good thing.

Angie: Angie would be best served becoming second banana to a strong player like Denise is with Malcolm. Sadly, Malcolm is taken leaving only Russell. However, if she could get Russell to vote out Denise, she would be able to to choose between him and the newly estranged Malcolm.

Roxanne: From a strategic standpoint, Angie and Roxanne are almost identical, so I think they should do basically the same thing at this point.

Skupin: He’s in a really good position already, but if he can manage to get RC to trust him and also bring Artis into the alliance, he could have the unwavering loyalty of both of them and Lisa. But he shouldn’t try to force it if RC doesn’t buy what he’s selling easily.

RC: I don’t think she should budge with her current alliance. I don’t see Skupin being particularly close with Abi Maria or Pete, so I think she gets to the final three no matter what with them. In an alliance with her, Skupin, Artis, and Lisa, Skupin is the one that is in a final 3 seat in everyone’s plans.

Lisa: If she can create a moment between herself and RC, she can present her past in a way that makes RC trust her more, and Mike can more easily convince RC to switch to the alliance with Lisa and Artis. From there, if she can beat Skupin at bonding with Artis and RC, she can ultimately decide who sits next to her if the alliance survives to the end of the game.

Artis: Surely, he and Mike have more in common than any other pairing in this tribe. If Artis could convince Mike that the younger crowd is going to stick together, Skupin will have even more incentive to convince RC to swap alliances.

Abi Maria: Remember Boston Rob’s buddy system? Abi and Pete need to make sure RC stays with them by simply never letting her be alone with anyone else, Skupin included. If RC doesn’t have a chance to individually bond with anyone else, she won’t be able to swap alliances.

Pete: Buddy up with RC and Abi Maria more. In the event that the alliance makes it to the end, and Skupin gets the last immunity, Pete will have to convince RC or Abi Maria to vote the other one out. I don’t think he’s thinking that far down the road, but if he doesn’t wedge himself in there, he could be out of luck.

Penner: I’ve said it already and I’ll say it again. Penner needs to pool his idol information with Dawson to swing Katie and Carter back over to his side. If he can shift the distrust from himself to Jeff, I think he will be safe from pre-merge votes. From there, they can get rid of Dana without making Jeff suspicious of any bigger alliance.

Dawson: I think that what’s best for Penner is also what’s best for her right now. In that alliance, she could be the bridge between Penner, and Katie and Carter. If everyone wants to take her to the final three, and they go into the merge with numbers, she has a possibly uncontested spot at the final tribal council.

Jeff: He’s already got the ball rolling to get rid of Penner, and I think the biggest roadblock is his career. The same logic he’s been using to get rid of Penner could easily be applied to him. Penner has already had the chance to play for a million dollars, but Jeff has already made several million dollars. Jeff needs to get close enough to everyone, mainly Dawson, so that the information won’t turn the vote over to him.

Dana: I think that Penner will be able to save himself and make Jeff the goat, so I think the best move for Dana is to abandon Jeff and try to form a threesome with two of the other alliance members, so she can survive more than just the first vote.

Katie: From what I see Katie is in possibly the best position in her tribe. I don’t think there is enough room for both Penner and Jeff in Kalabaw, and I think either Dawson or Dana will be the first female off the tribe, so Katie just has to choose which old guy she and Carter want to get out. I think she’s best served going with Penner because I think his strategic reputation will make a better shield than anything Jeff has to offer.

Carter: Before the merge, Carter is in a similar position to Katie because of the war between Jeff and Penner, but after the merge, he is most likely going to be the first target of the Kalabaw tribe. He needs to play a submissive role to either Jeff or Penner so that they are gunned down before him to give him a legitimate shot at making the finals.

Now for predictions!

Matsing: I don’t see the alliance between Russell, Angie, and Roxanne happening, so I think that if they lose the next immunity, Malcolm and Denise will spare Russell for the time being so he can help in challenges and axe either Roxanne or Angie. They’ll decide that Angie will be easier to control than Roxanne, so they’ll give Roxanne the boot.

Tandang: Skupin will continue to push for Lisa to share her past with RC, and he’ll manage to convince RC that Lisa is trustworthy. They may decide to get rid of Artis to make Pete and Abi Maria believe they are still good, or they may get rid of Abi Maria and keep Artis for challenges. My money says they’ll get rid of Abi Maria before they get rid of one of their guys.

Kalabaw: I have to have faith that Penner can manage to get the ball rolling against Jeff Kent. If that happens, I don’t see Dana making the switch in time to save herself, so it will be between her and Jeff. Of all the returnees, I think Penner is most likely to get rid of a physical competitor early in the game, but I think they will still decide to keep the muscle, and Dana will go home.